Sunday, March 28, 2010

Stimulus may not be so stimulating after all

Do you know that stimulus may not work the way we expect. It can and in history it had negative impact on GDP growth defying its very intention.

During early 1990s, Sweden adopted aggressive fiscal expansion to revive the economy. Guess what happened? Private consumption and business investment fell sharply and economic growth was pushed into negative territory.

I suspect that the suddent increase in public spending crowded out the private spending.

Stimulus may have worked this time. However, it didn't solve the very pressing issue which brought us into this mess at the first place i.e. excessive level of credit and credit growth.

Imagine when the world reaches a debt level such that the lowest level interest rate will not prompt household to borrow and spend money. Many gurus called it the "zero" hour. Some argued that we have already had a tasteful of it.

Can you really imagine that? Well there is no need to imagine. Japan was and still is a perfect example.

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