Market appears to have bounced back from the recent short-term oversold position.
However, it started to show cracks again.
Fundamentally, the global economy is weak. US, UK and Europe countries remain in fragile state of economy. I see no near-term solution to this deep trouble with debt.
If the government around the world start cutting into their spending, it spells recession.
If the government continue to leave interest rate at virtually zero, the economy will be okay on life support for now but it will create mass inflation in the long run.
It is probably that there will be hyper-inflation.
This is exactly what you experience in the asset market right now. Both US treasury and gold price rally at the same time. One would have expected that the return on these two asset should be the opposite of each other.
It means that shorter term environment is deflationary whilst inflationary in the longer term induced by the mass amount liquidity to chase too little goods once economy starts to recover.
One conclusion this does not look good either way.
Friday, June 25, 2010
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